Friday, February 6, 2009

Ending 2009

October 2009
As I predicted on the original post attached below, the market would further fall. It did and by the end of the 1st quarter it hit the bottom. From then until now, early October, the market has risen from the lows. At this time I am suggesting shorting the market. Cover your bets and get cashed up, maybe some in gold. The market may go slightly higher, but these highs have no merit. Big American banks are stuffed, as are many of our governments. Loaded with huge debt, many of the worlds wealthy countries are saying time for a change away from the US$. I think the market will fall, and it would not surprise me to see a major conflict break out in the Middle East.
Apart from that news, all is well, we know where we are going. I hope you all have a very merry Christmas!


Starting 2009
On a separate front. No doubt the contraction in business has caught many unprepared as much in NZ as elsewhere. I really don't like the stimulus packages being mooted. An inflated economy needs to deflate where it will again offer value. Trying to keep it pumped up will not create viable value or good opportunity. The stimulus packages will burn the governments dry, devalue their currencies, eventually drive up interest rates and inflation, suck cash from the economy as governments compete with other sectors for cash to fund these wasteful expenditures. Then when we come out of the inevitable big fall (that will occur), the banks will have a field day all cashed up, particularly if they are allowed to remove all toxic debt which they created in the first place, and pass onto government/public as a bill that must be paid. Micro economic structures are being destroyed, red tape is anti growth. It's ridiculous and I can see us entering incredibly dangerous times. Tighten your seat belt, it's going to get bad. In the last 15 years we have been creating over manufacturing, over valuing, over regulating while suffering over the top idiot government thinking drafted up by greedy bankers and monopoly businesses all too keen to take politicians for a ride